BALTIMORE – After a difficult 2024 season, 26-year-old Dylan Carlson is poised for a fresh start with the Baltimore Orioles.
His journey in Major League Baseball has been marked by both challenges and flashes of brilliance, making him an intriguing player to watch as he attempts to regain his peak performance in 2025.
Contract Details and Team Expectations
The Orioles announced the addition of Carlson on Monday with a one-year contract worth $975,000, which includes a $25,000 bonus if he achieves at least 200 plate appearances in the upcoming season.
In the team’s announcement, the Orioles expressed their excitement about bringing Carlson into the fold, recognizing the talent he could add to their roster.
Career Overview and Challenges
Carlson was drafted by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016 as the 33rd overall pick in the first round.
He made an impactful entrance in the shortened 2020 season and really turned heads during his rookie year in 2021.
That season, he finished third in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, posting impressive stats: a .266 batting average, 31 doubles, 18 home runs, and 65 RBIs, all contributing to an OPS of .780 over 149 games.
These numbers represented the high point of his career thus far.
Yet, Carlson’s production began to slip in subsequent seasons, largely due to injuries that hindered his performance.
Following an offseason surgery on his left ankle, he faced additional obstacles early in 2024 with a left shoulder injury.
Despite these setbacks, he played 59 games for the Cardinals, but his average dipped to .198 with a .515 OPS before he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays on July 30.
In Tampa, he managed to play 37 games, hitting .219 with three home runs and finishing with a composite -1.2 bWAR, marking the first negative figure of his career.
Future Prospects with the Orioles
Despite these challenges, there’s a strong belief that Carlson can turn things around in Baltimore.
His ability to maintain discipline at the plate is one of his strengths; last season, he recorded a 24.8% chase rate, reflecting his patience against tough pitchers.
In healthier years, he consistently ranked in the 74th percentile for this statistic, showcasing his solid approach when free from injuries.
Carlson’s health will be crucial as he seeks to bounce back.
After his shoulder troubles, he experienced a decline in arm strength, ending up in the 63rd percentile according to Baseball Savant.
This marked a significant dip from previous seasons, where he never dropped below the 80th percentile.
With the right training and injury-free playing time, Carlson’s plate discipline and arm could become invaluable assets for the Orioles as they shape their lineup.
As the Orioles gear up for Opening Day, it remains unclear if Carlson will make the final cut for the 26-man roster.
Currently, the starting outfield is anticipated to feature Tyler O’Neill, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser, with Heston Kjerstad also likely vying for a spot.
The Orioles’ 40-man roster includes six outfielders, including Daz Cameron, increasing the competition for positions.
The team could opt for a lineup featuring just four outfielders and seven infielders, possibly allowing first baseman Ryan O’Hearn to serve as a backup outfielder, while infielder Jorge Mateo might step in at center field.
Alternatively, if they choose to roster five outfielders, a decision will need to be made between Carlson and Cameron.
With a deep pool of talent vying for six available infield roles—including Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Mateo, Coby Mayo, Ryan Mountcastle, O’Hearn, Emmanuel Rivera, Ramón Urías, and Jordan Westburg—a rigorous selection process is on the horizon.
With Spring Training around the corner, the Orioles have much to consider, but Carlson’s arrival offers valuable depth in the outfield, especially following Anthony Santander’s departure.
This new chapter could be just what Carlson needs to showcase his skills and emerge as a key contributor to the Orioles’ success in the 2025 season.