Dalton Del Don dives into some undervalued pitchers this draft season, shining a light on those whose injury histories and other considerations present unique opportunities for astute fantasy baseball players.
DEGROM’S INJURY TRACK RECORD MAY YIELD BIG REWARDS
Jacob deGrom is undeniably a fascinating pick, despite the concerns that come with him – after all, he hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in a season since 2019 and is now 36 years old.
With a top-50 draft pick on the line, there’s a considerable level of risk associated with this choice.
After undergoing a second Tommy John surgery in June 2023, deGrom returned late in the previous season with slightly diminished velocity, but his output remained exceptional.
His numbers speak volumes: a dazzling 29.5 K-BB% and a 33.1% CSW rate would have led the league.
While these metrics stemmed from a small sample, optimism surrounds his health as he gears up for 2025.
Similar to Chris Sale’s return last season, deGrom finds himself back in action after a lengthy absence.
His statistical profile since 2018 is eye-catching: a 2.07 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and a 30.5 K-BB%, all leading in the majors.
It’s possible that his arm is in better shape now than in previous years.
Even if he’s only able to pitch around 100 innings, deGrom can have a profound impact on your ratios, and if he surpasses that to hit 175 innings, he could be a serious contender for the Cy Young Award.
In my rankings, deGrom lands at the No. 3 spot among starting pitchers.
CROCHET: A PITCHER WITH TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL
Garrett Crochet is another intriguing option, as his draft rankings demonstrate significant volatility, reflecting his upside.
The flip side, however, is notable: he only pitched four innings over his last 14 outings last season, ending up with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
Compounding the challenge, he now faces the daunting task of pitching at Fenway Park, a venue renowned for its hitter-friendly dimensions.
Yet, it’s crucial to consider that Crochet’s limited appearances and struggles were somewhat expected as he made the transition to starting for the first time.
Even amidst difficulties, his SIERA of 2.53 showcases his potential among qualified starters.
With key metrics like a 30.7% CSW rate and a 29.6% K-BB%, his effectiveness shines through.
Now that he’s with the Red Sox, Crochet stands to benefit from improved run support and a stronger bullpen, especially given the valuable prospect package that Boston surrendered to acquire him.
He’s projected to have one of the highest strikeout percentages among starting pitchers in 2025.
While Crochet is often picked among the top 20 in NFBC drafts, his average position on Yahoo is around 40, making him an appealing target.
A TAMPA BAY SLEEPER WITH PROMISE
Drew Rasmussen, a fascinating option despite some limitations due to his previous arm surgeries and reliance on relief appearances last season, is returning to a starting role that brings excitement.
He recently re-signed with Tampa Bay, where he believes starting will align better with his health objectives.
While his previous numbers might have been buoyed by his bullpen work, he still managed an impressive 1.35 FIP and a 34.1% CSW in 28.2 innings – stats that would have ranked him among the elite relievers.
In 2022, Rasmussen demonstrated his talent with a commendable 2.84 ERA during his last stretch as a starter.
Though he might not enjoy the comforting confines of Tropicana Field this year, the potential he brings at his current ADP is hard to overlook.
David Festa, while still vying for a secure spot in Minnesota’s rotation, was the Twins’ top pitching prospect leading up to his debut last season.
After a rocky start, he rebounded impressively, finishing with a robust 3.15 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate over his last 54.1 innings.
Though his walk rate at 8.3% leaves room for improvement, it appears manageable, especially with his solid 29.0% CSW.
His 4.90 ERA comes paired with a promising 3.58 SIERA, ranking him among the top 15 starters.
With his strikeout potential, Festa is shaping up to be a captivating late-round target.
Matthew Boyd showed notable skill in his return from Tommy John surgery last season, posting an impressive 3.29 FIP and a 19.9% K-BB%, numbers that would have positioned him among the top 15 starters.
With a robust 29.9% CSW, Boyd was just shy of the elite names in the game, such as Logan Gilbert.
As he heads into 2025 firmly situated in Chicago’s rotation following a substantial offseason contract, he stands to gain a lot from the pitching-friendly atmosphere at Wrigley Field.
Boyd’s workload may be somewhat limited, but in today’s landscape where 200-inning seasons are increasingly rare, contributing 160 innings can be tremendously valuable.
He often flies under the radar in Yahoo drafts, making him a potential late-round steal for those on the lookout.