The Ongoing Free Agency Search for Jack Flaherty
This baseball offseason is buzzing, especially for starting pitchers.
With teams eager for reliable pitching talent, many veterans have successfully landed significant contracts, often surpassing expectations.
Yet, among this flurry of activity, one player stands out: Jack Flaherty.
He is the lone name left from MLB.com’s pre-Hot Stove Top 10 Free Agent Starter list still without a deal.
According to FanGraphs projections, only a handful of remaining pitchers are expected to achieve an average of 2 WAR next season.
At just 29 years old and without the hindrance of a Qualifying Offer, Flaherty presents a compelling option for teams seeking starting pitching.
Consider how crucial he could have been for the Dodgers during a tumultuous postseason last year when their rotation showed vulnerabilities.
A Season of Potential Rebirth
Flaherty’s career has experienced both impressive peaks and challenging valleys.
In 2019, he appeared to be on a trajectory toward ace status, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting and showcasing an outstanding second half with just 10 earned runs across 15 starts, translating to a remarkable 0.91 ERA.
Unfortunately, injuries marred the following seasons, limiting him to only 154 2/3 innings in three years.
His 2023 campaign was a mixed bag, marred by struggles and a not-so-pleasant 4.99 ERA split between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Baltimore Orioles.
However, he rebounded quite nicely last winter with the Detroit Tigers, posting a stellar 2.95 ERA in 18 starts before mid-season trade talk sent him to the Dodgers.
His ability to elevate his strikeout rate, alongside his notable contributions as a Game 1 starter in the NLCS and World Series, has solidified his standing in the league.
Understanding the Reservations
Even with these favorable indicators, several concerns linger in the minds of teams contemplating a deal.
After relocating to the Dodgers, Flaherty witnessed a decline in his strikeout rate and an uptick in walks.
While he had a couple of strong postseason outings, he also had moments to forget, particularly during a challenging Game 5 in the World Series.
Moreover, despite notable durability in recent years, doubts about his back issues resurface, especially after the Yankees walked away from a trade deal.
Although his win-loss record of 13-7 and a 3.17 ERA might catch some eyes, teams are increasingly leaning toward advanced metrics over these conventional stats.
Evaluating his actual performance suggests a reality closer to a 3.60 ERA, with projections for early 2025 estimating him in the 3.80 to 3.90 range.
These factors might explain why teams are hesitant, particularly if the initial reports of his desire for a five-year contract hold any truth.
Nevertheless, recent whispers indicate he is now more amenable to shorter contracts, yet the mystery of his unsigned status remains.
What the Numbers Tell Us
As baseball analytics continue to progress into 2025, traditional statistics carry less weight.
Flaherty’s pitching profile has undergone considerable shifts since his early days with the Cardinals.
Notably, his four-seam fastball velocity has dropped from an impressive 93.8 mph in July 2019 to around 92.6 mph last September.
A closer look at his performance metrics reveals changing effectiveness.
Flaherty once thrived with his fastball and slider but has seen his curveball become his most effective pitch, while both the fastball and slider have become increasingly unreliable.
There’s a significant disparity to note here: in 2024, fastballs above 93.5 mph yielded much better results than those thrown at slower velocities, illustrating the stakes involved.
For teams in search of pitching talent, Jack Flaherty embodies many desired qualities: youth, a recent track record of health, and the potential for high-level performance.
The biggest question mark remains consistency.
As the top free-agent starter still available, several contending teams could stand to gain from taking a chance on this promising pitcher who still has the potential to outshine expectations.
